Industry views on water resources planning methods – prospects for change in England and Wales

This paper describes a qualitative study of practitioner perspectives on regulated water resources planning practice in England and Wales. The study focuses on strengths and weaknesses of existing practice and the case for change towards a risk-based approach informed by stochastic modelling assessments. In-depth, structured interviews were conducted to capture the views of planners, regulators and consultants closely involved in the planning process. We found broad agreement that the existing water availability assessment methods are fallible; they lack transparency, are often highly subjective and may fail to adequately expose problems of resilience. While most practitioners believe these issues warrant a more detailed examination of risk in the planning process, few believe there is a strong case for a fundamental shift towards risk-based planning informed by stochastic modelling assessments. The study identifies perceived business risks associated with change and exposes widespread scepticism of stochastic methods

A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales

The current ‘Deployable Output’ approach for assessing water resources system performance in England and Wales is a practical, communicable means for assessing the adequacy of a water supply system and determining the relative benefits of proposed system enhancements. A recognised flaw with this approach is that it fails to characterise the severity of potential supply shortfalls, leading to mischaracterisation of risks and benefits associated with alternative candidate investments. Here, we propose a Monte Carlo procedure that could supplement the existing process by exposing the magnitude (% water demand unserved) and duration (number of days) of supply curtailments under a range of drought scenarios. The method is demonstrated using a realistic, stylised water resources system and a discrete number of infrastructure investments. Results demonstrate that vulnerability assessments can expose previously unidentified risks that might radically alter a planner’s estimate of the cost‐effectiveness of a particular investment

A Global Hydrologic Framework to Accelerate Scientific Discovery

With the ability to simulate historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degree, the Python package Xanthos version 1 provided a solid foundation for continuing advancements in global water dynamics science. The goal of Xanthos version 2 was to build upon previous investments by creating a Python framework where core components of the model (potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff generation, and river routing) could be interchanged or extended without having to start from scratch. Xanthos 2 utilizes a component-style architecture which enables researchers to quickly incorporate and test cutting-edge research in a stable modeling environment prebuilt with diagnostics. Major advancements for Xanthos 2 were also achieved by the creation of a robust default configuration with a calibration module, hydropower modules, and new PET modules, which are now available to the scientific community. Funding statement: This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, as part of research in Multi-Sector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone

Two Rare Magnetic Cataclysmic Variables with Extreme Cyclotron Features Identified in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

Two newly identified magnetic cataclysmic variables discovered in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), SDSSJ155331.12+551614.5 and SDSSJ132411.57+032050.5, have spectra showing highly prominent, narrow, strongly polarized cyclotron humps with amplitudes that vary on orbital periods of 4.39 and 2.6 hrs, respectively. In the former, the spacing of the humps indicates the 3rd and 4th harmonics in a magnetic field of ~60 MG. The narrowness of the cyclotron features and the lack of strong emission lines imply very low temperature plasmas and very low accretion rates, so that the accreting area is heated by particle collisions rather than accretion shocks. The detection of rare systems like these exemplifies the ability of the SDSS to find the lowest accretion rate close binaries.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, vol. 583, February 1, 2003; slight revisions and additions in response to referee's comments; 17 pages, 6 figures, AASTeX v4.

Association of early imaging for back pain with clinical outcomes in older adults

IMPORTANCE: In contrast to the recommendations for younger adults, many guidelines allow for older adults with back pain to undergo imaging without waiting 4 to 6 weeks. However, early imaging may precipitate interventions that do not improve outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To compare function and pain at the 12-month follow-up visit among older adults who received early imaging with those who did not receive early imaging after a new primary care visit for back pain without radiculopathy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort of 5239 patients 65 years or older with a new primary care visit for back pain (2011-2013) in 3 US health care systems. We matched controls 1:1 using propensity score matching of demographic and clinical characteristics, including diagnosis, pain severity, pain duration, functional status, and prior resource use. EXPOSURES: Diagnostic imaging (plain films, computed tomography [CT], magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) of the lumbar or thoracic spine within 6 weeks of the index visit. PRIMARY OUTCOME: back or leg pain-related disability measured by the modified Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (score range, 0-24; higher scores indicate greater disability) 12 months after enrollment. RESULTS: Among the 5239 patients, 1174 had early radiographs and 349 had early MRI/CT. At 12 months, neither the early radiograph group nor the early MRI/CT group differed significantly from controls on the disability questionnaire. The mean score for patients who underwent early radiography was 8.54 vs 8.74 among the control group (difference, -0.10 [95% CI, -0.71 to 0.50]; mixed model, P = .36). The mean score for the early MRI/CT group was 9.81 vs 10.50 for the control group (difference,-0.51 [-1.62 to 0.60]; mixed model, P = .18). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among older adults with a new primary care visit for back pain, early imaging was not associated with better 1-year outcomes. The value of early diagnostic imaging in older adults for back pain without radiculopathy is uncertain

Modified-Source Gravity and Cosmological Structure Formation

One way to account for the acceleration of the universe is to modify general relativity, rather than introducing dark energy. Typically, such modifications introduce new degrees of freedom. It is interesting to consider models with no new degrees of freedom, but with a modified dependence on the conventional energy-momentum tensor; the Palatini formulation of $f(R)$ theories is one example. Such theories offer an interesting testing ground for investigations of cosmological modified gravity. In this paper we study the evolution of structure in these ``modified-source gravity'' theories. In the linear regime, density perturbations exhibit scale dependent runaway growth at late times and, in particular, a mode of a given wavenumber goes nonlinear at a higher redshift than in the standard $\Lambda$CDM model. We discuss the implications of this behavior and why there are reasons to expect that the growth will be cut off in the nonlinear regime. Assuming that this holds in a full nonlinear analysis, we briefly describe how upcoming measurements may probe the differences between the modified theory and the standard $\Lambda$CDM model.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, uses iopart styl

High-Resolution Submillimeter and Near-Infrared Studies of the Transition Disk around Sz 91

To reveal the structures of a transition disk around a young stellar object in Lupus, Sz 91, we have performed aperture synthesis 345 GHz continuum and CO(3--2) observations with the Submillimeter Array (\sim1\arcsec--3\arcsec resolution), and high-resolution imaging of polarized intensity at the $K_s$-band by using the HiCIAO instrument on the Subaru Telescope (0\farcs25 resolution). Our observations successfully resolved the inner and outer radii of the dust disk to be 65 AU and 170 AU, respectively, which indicates that Sz 91 is a transition disk source with one of the largest known inner holes. The model fitting analysis of the spectral energy distribution reveals an H$_2$ mass of $2.4\times10^{-3}$ M_\sun in the cold ($T<$30 K) outer part at $65<r<170$ AU by assuming a canonical gas-to-dust mass ratio of 100, although a small amount ($>3\times10^{-9}$ M_\sun) of hot ($T\sim$180 K) dust possibly remains inside the inner hole of the disk. The structure of the hot component could be interpreted as either an unresolved self-luminous companion body (not directly detected in our observations) or a narrow ring inside the inner hole. Significant CO(3--2) emission with a velocity gradient along the major axis of the dust disk is concentrated on the Sz 91 position, suggesting a rotating gas disk with a radius of 420 AU. The Sz 91 disk is possibly a rare disk in an evolutionary stage immediately after the formation of protoplanets because of the large inner hole and the lower disk mass than other transition disks studied thus far

A research agenda for seed-trait functional ecology

Trait-based approaches have improved our understanding of plant evolution, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. A major challenge for the upcoming decades is to understand the functions and evolution of early life-history traits, across levels of organization and ecological strategies. Although a variety of seed traits are critical for dispersal, persistence, germination timing and seedling establishment, only seed mass has been considered systematically. Here we suggest broadening the range of morphological, physiological and biochemical seed traits to add new understanding on plant niches, population dynamics and community assembly. The diversity of seed traits and functions provides an important challenge that will require international collaboration in three areas of research. First, we present a conceptual framework for a seed ecological spectrum that builds upon current understanding of plant niches. We then lay the foundation for a seed-trait functional network, the establishment of which will underpin and facilitate trait-based inferences. Finally, we anticipate novel insights and challenges associated with incorporating diverse seed traits into predictive evolutionary ecology, community ecology and applied ecology. If the community invests in standardized seed-trait collection and the implementation of rigorous databases, major strides can be made at this exciting frontier of functional ecology

A Conserved Supergene Locus Controls Colour Pattern Diversity in Heliconius Butterflies

We studied whether similar developmental genetic mechanisms are involved in both convergent and divergent evolution. Mimetic insects are known for their diversity of patterns as well as their remarkable evolutionary convergence, and they have played an important role in controversies over the respective roles of selection and constraints in adaptive evolution. Here we contrast three butterfly species, all classic examples of Müllerian mimicry. We used a genetic linkage map to show that a locus, Yb, which controls the presence of a yellow band in geographic races of Heliconius melpomene, maps precisely to the same location as the locus Cr, which has very similar phenotypic effects in its co-mimic H. erato. Furthermore, the same genomic location acts as a “supergene”, determining multiple sympatric morphs in a third species, H. numata. H. numata is a species with a very different phenotypic appearance, whose many forms mimic different unrelated ithomiine butterflies in the genus Melinaea. Other unlinked colour pattern loci map to a homologous linkage group in the co-mimics H. melpomene and H. erato, but they are not involved in mimetic polymorphism in H. numata. Hence, a single region from the multilocus colour pattern architecture of H. melpomene and H. erato appears to have gained control of the entire wing-pattern variability in H. numata, presumably as a result of selection for mimetic “supergene” polymorphism without intermediates. Although we cannot at this stage confirm the homology of the loci segregating in the three species, our results imply that a conserved yet relatively unconstrained mechanism underlying pattern switching can affect mimicry in radically different ways. We also show that adaptive evolution, both convergent and diversifying, can occur by the repeated involvement of the same genomic regions

A web-based intervention (RESTORE) to support self-management of cancer-related fatigue following primary cancer treatment: a multi-centre proof of concept randomised controlled trial

Purpose: Cancer-related fatigue (CRF) is a frequent and distressing symptom experienced after cancer treatment. RESTORE is the first web-based resource designed to enhance self-efficacy to manage CRF following curative-intent treatment. The aim of this study is to test the proof of concept and inform the design of an effectiveness trial. Methods: A multi-centre parallel-group two-armed (1:1) exploratory randomised controlled trial (RCT) with qualitative process evaluation was employed in the study. Participants (≥18 years; ≤5 years post treatment with moderate to severe fatigue) were recruited and randomly assigned to RESTORE or a leaflet. Feasibility and acceptability were measured by recruitment, attrition, intervention adherence, completion of outcome measures and process evaluation. Change in self-efficacy to manage CRF was also explored. Outcome measures were completed at baseline (T0), 6 weeks (T1) and 12 weeks (T2). Data were analysed using mixed-effects linear regression and directed content analysis. Results: One hundred and sixty-three people participated in the trial and 19 in the process evaluation. The intervention was feasible (39 % of eligible patients consented) and acceptable (attrition rate 36 %). There was evidence of higher fatigue self-efficacy at T1 in the intervention group vs comparator (mean difference 0.51 [−0.08 to 1.11]), though the difference in groups decreased by 12 weeks. Time since diagnosis influenced perceived usefulness of the intervention. Modifications were suggested. Conclusion: Proof of concept was achieved. The RESTORE intervention should be subject to a definitive trial with some adjustments. Provision of an effective supportive resource would empower cancer survivors to manage CRF after treatment completion